Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving

Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving

BNC tracked the number of unique Twitter users mentioning “BTC”, “Bitcoin” or “$BTC”, in the days leading up to the Bitcoin halving. As expected, the number of users tweeting about bitcoin peaked on the day of the halving.

!Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (1)

We can also look at the aggregate sentiment of these tweets. BNC assigns a sentiment score to each tweet using a Naive Bayes classifier and an extensive lexicon of crypto-specific terminology. The model has been trained with a labeled, historic dataset of crypto-related tweets. The per tweet score is then aggregated to a daily score.

!Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (2)

Chart Features

* Line: Hourly close of the BTC spot price from the BNC BLX.
* Bars: Count of unique users mentioning “BTC”, “Bitcoin” or “$BTC”.
* Bar Color: A normalized sentiment score representing the proportion of bitcoin related tweets labelled as positive vs negative. A sentiment score of -10 would demonstrate a much larger proportion of tweets with negative sentiment.

Insights:

* The sentiment around bitcoin remained largely positive in the week leading up to the halving, likely driven by a nearly 40% recovery in BTC price throughout April.
* The only day where sentiment flipped negative was on May 10th, following a 10% crash in the bitcoin price.

## DEEP DIVE INTO TOPICS OF INTEREST

Diving deeper, we explore the ten most popular topics, ranked by aggregate likes, co-mentioned with bitcoin on the two days leading up to the Bitcoin Halving, and the day of the event.

!Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (3)

* The majority of topics revolved around the price crash on May 10th.
* As we saw in the above sentiment chart, topics were largely negative.
* Some of this negative sentiment was also likely driven by an outage on Coinbase Pro, leaving many users unable to access their accounts.

!Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (4)

* Attention quickly turned back to the approaching Halving event on May 11th.
* Several topics revolved around the inflationary advantage of Bitcoin over fiat money.

Another topic that gained traction on the 11th was the announcement by Paul Tudor Jones that he holds a portion of his portfolio in BTC. Interestingly, Jones’ statement also commented on the inflation characteristics of Bitcoin, believing it will be a useful hedge against inflation over the next 4 years. Bitcoin mentions by important figures, either in the finance industry or elsewhere, often capture a large portion of attention on Twitter.

!Data Snippet – Twitter topics, sentiment, and the Bitcoin halving (5)

Insights:

* “Gemini” was the most discussed and liked topic on the day of the halving, as JPMorgan offered bank accounts for Gemini.
* Price was the second most discussed and liked topic on Twitter.

Takeaways/Summary:

1. Major price jumps and events like the bitcoin halving attract crypto users on twitter.
2. This halving event attracted an all-time high number of users.
3. Users tweet about the price of Bitcoin on a regular basis, but topics like “JPMorgan” and “Paul Tudor” can quickly gain traction.

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